AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Trying to Stay Higher at Midday

Corn futures are steady to showing 2 1/4 cent gains in the 2019 contracts, with most 2020 contracts slightly lower. After the Monday close, NASS reported that 96% of the US corn crop has been planted. Emergence was at 89%, vs. the 99% average. At this point last year, US already had 5% of the crop silking. Crop condition ratings declined, with 56% gd/ex and the Brugler500 index down 5 points to 349. It was 355 this week in 1993, which some are using as a weather analog year. Ratings in OH fell the sharpest, down 26 points, with MI (-16), IN (-13), ND (-13), MO (-8) and IL (-7) all reported lower. IA rose 6 points, with MN up 3 and NE 2 points higher. The average trade estimate for corn acreage ahead of Friday’s USDA report is 87.03 million corn acres for the US in 2019 according to a Bloomberg survey. AgRural pegs Brazil’s second corn crop at 19% harvested, well above the 5-year average at 7%.

Jul 19 Corn is at $4.48 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents,

Sep 19 Corn is at $4.54, up 2 1/4 cents,

Dec 19 Corn is at $4.58, up 3/4 cent

Mar 20 Corn is at $4.62 3/4, down 1/4 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Struggling at Midday

Soybean futures are down 4 to 5 1/2 cents in the front months on Tuesday. Soybean meal is down $1.10/ton, with soy oil 25 points lower. USDA calculated 85% of intended acreage is planted vs. the 5-year average of 97% for this date. Emergence of the crop was 71%, 20% behind normal. Last year’s Crop Progress report for week 25 had 12% of the crop blooming. The initial crop condition ratings showed 54% good or excellent, with the Brugler500 index (which weights all five condition categories) at 349. That was the lowest index value for this week since 2012. All of the 18 reported states other than NC and LA were below the same week in 2018. Per wire surveys, US acreage for 2019 is expected to be around 84.68 million acres in this Friday’s report.

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $9.04 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $9.09 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans are at $9.15, down 5 1/2 cents,

Nov 19 Soybeans are at $9.27 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 Soybean Meal is at $316.50, down $1.10

Jul 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.10, down $0.25

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Mostly Higher on Tuesday

Wheat futures are firm to 5 cents higher in most contracts at midday. USDA crop condition ratings declined vs. last week for both winter wheat and spring wheat, with the latter 75% good or excellent vs. 77% a week earlier. Conditions in KS were down 5 points, with OK 12 lower. The only spring wheat states to see an increase were SD and WA. Maturity continues to lag, with winter wheat 94% heading vs. 99% average, and spring wheat 7% vs. 29%. Winter wheat harvesting is 15% completed vs the 34% average for this week. KS is just 5% harvested, with OK at 43% and TX 58% complete. Drier forecasts for the Southern Plains should allow for harvest to pick up this week.

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.38 3/4, up 3/4 cent,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.67 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.48, up 4 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live Cattle Higher, Feeders Lower at Midday

Live cattle futures are firm to 37.5 cents higher on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures are steady to 55 cents lower. The CME feeder cattle index was down 2 cents @ $131.41 on June 21. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Tuesday morning. Choice boxes were down 36 cents at $219.38 with Select boxes 52 cents lower @ $199.29. USDA estimated Monday FI cattle slaughter was 121,000. That was 1,000 head larger than last Monday and 5,000 head more than the same Monday a year ago. There are a few $107 cash cattle bids being shown so far at midday.

Jun 19 Cattle are at $107.300, up $0.375,

Aug 19 Cattle are at $102.550, up $0.125,

Oct 19 Cattle are at $104.125, up $0.100,

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle are at $131.350, down $0.425

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle are at $131.825, down $0.525

Oct 19 Feeder Cattle are at $132.175, down $0.425

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Rebound on Turnaround Tuesday

Lean Hog futures are up 85 cents to $2.275 so far on Turnaround Tuesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 49 cents from the previous day @ $78.65 on June 21. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 50 cents @$76.83. The national average base hog price was down $1.59 on Tuesday morning at $71.92 per hundred pounds. Estimated Monday FI hog slaughter was 448,000 head. That was down 19,000 from the previous week but 14,000 more than the same Monday in 2018.

Jul 19 Hogs are at $74.575, up $1.725,

Aug 19 Hogs are at $76.500, up $2.275

Oct 19 Hogs are at $70.450, up $1.400

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Higher at Midday

Cotton futures are up 6 to 33 points in most contracts on Tuesday. The Cotlook A index for June 24 was down 45 points from the previous day to 76.40 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) from USDA is 59.14 cents/lb through Thursday. NASS indicated that cotton planting is wrapping up, with 96% completed as of Sunday vs. the 98% average pace. Missouri is the notable laggard. Boll set is at 3%, just a little behind the 5% average pace. Crop condition rating dropped 1 point on the Brugler500 Index due to more crop shifting into the poor category than improved to good. Ratings in TX dropped 9 points to 313, with GA improved by 9.

Jul 19 Cotton is at 62.55, up 25 points,

Oct 19 Cotton is at 65.69, up 33 points

Dec 19 Cotton is at 65.79, up 10 points

Mar 20 Cotton is at 66.500, up 6 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353